AEK Athens FC vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Allwyn Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Allwyn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AEK Athens FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while OFI have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
OFI trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 38% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 41% | OFI 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.64 xG and OFI 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.117 / defence 0.898 | OFI attack 1.027 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 AEK Athens FC games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 51% | Draw 28% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 4.76. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 50% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 51% | Draw 28% | OFI 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.64 / OFI 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.117 / def 0.898 | OFI attack 1.027 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
OFI xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 51% chance of winning, OFI a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): AEK Athens FC 7W | Draws 1 | OFI 2W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.12) and OFI's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.54
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.99
OFI xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.99 for OFI, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 21W 9D 2L from 32 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. AEK Athens FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 17L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 13W 2D 1L from 16 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.34 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Pre-Season
OFI
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 21W 9D 2L in their last 32 games (2.25 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.56 PPG; OFI away: 0.94 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, OFI in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, OFI have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 31%, OFI 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AEK Athens FC) and 75% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 62% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 75% of OFI's.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.