AEK Athens FC 1-0 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Larisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allwyn Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Allwyn Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Larisa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in AEK Athens FC's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AEK Athens FC 0W, Larisa 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 35% versus Larisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AEK Athens FC 39% | Larisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.20 xG and Larisa 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.385 / defence 0.700 | Larisa attack 0.790 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.111. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 AEK Athens FC games / 23 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Larisa 9%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | Larisa 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Larisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Larisa 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 41% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.20 / Larisa 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.385 / def 0.700 | Larisa attack 0.790 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Larisa xG
41%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Larisa kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Larisa kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Larisa?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 0 Larisa.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Larisa part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 74% chance of winning, Larisa a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Larisa?
Record (1 meetings): AEK Athens FC 0W | Draws 1 | Larisa 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Larisa in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Larisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.39) and Larisa's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.79x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 49/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
74%
1.36
18%
5.62
9%
11.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.81
0.61
Larisa xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
11.51
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
40%
2.51
1%
103.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.61 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Larisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 23 games, going 16W 5D 2L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (4W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.39 PPG clear of Larisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 9W 1D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Larisa have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.91 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Larisa in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 16W 5D 2L in their last 23 games (2.30 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 9D 10L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Larisa away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.55 PPG; Larisa away: 0.91 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Larisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Larisa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Larisa?
From 2 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 1, Larisa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-0 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Larisa?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 27%, Larisa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AEK Athens FC) and 46% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Larisa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 46% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 46% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Larisa tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Larisa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Larisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Larisa 1-0 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.20 xG and Larisa 0.61 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.70 against Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Larisa 9%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 39%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Larisa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.