Werder Bremen 3-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.50 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with SC Freiburg winning.
It is worth noting that SC Freiburg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 64% versus SC Freiburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 64% | SC Freiburg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.64 xG and SC Freiburg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.966 / defence 1.048 | SC Freiburg attack 0.904 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.294. Data: 52 Werder Bremen games / 52 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 28%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 3.57. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 50% | SC Freiburg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Werder Bremen 1.64 / SC Freiburg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.966 / def 1.048 | SC Freiburg attack 0.904 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SC Freiburg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Werder Bremen 3 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 47% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
Record (5 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 3W.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.97x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.90x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
47%
2.15
25%
3.92
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.87
1.23
SC Freiburg xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.23 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 15W 11D 26L from 52 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 15L across 52 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 9W 4D 13L from 26 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 10W 5D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.44 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 15W 11D 26L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.19 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 5-0 on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 62%, SC Freiburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Werder Bremen and 62% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%; SC Freiburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 46% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Werder Bremen's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat SC Freiburg 3-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.64 xG and SC Freiburg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against SC Freiburg attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 28%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, SC Freiburg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.