Werder Bremen 0-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weserstadion plays host to Werder Bremen versus FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Werder Bremen's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 0 for FC St. Pauli and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Werder Bremen 2–0 FC St. Pauli — a Werder Bremen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 56% versus FC St. Pauli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | FC St. Pauli 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.45 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.958 / defence 1.084 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.781 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.428. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 64 games and FC St. Pauli's last 30.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 31%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.38 | Draw 3.71 | FC St. Pauli 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 60% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.45 / FC St. Pauli 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.958 / def 1.084 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.781 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Werder Bremen 0 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 42% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.96x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.78x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 64 games and FC St. Pauli's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.71
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.21
FC St. Pauli xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.21 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 24W 15D 25L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 28W 15D 21L from 64 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.55 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 8D 12L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 5D 13L from their last 32 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.38 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
Werder Bremen (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 24W 15D 25L in their last 64 games (1.36 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 28W 15D 21L in their last 64 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.38 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: FC St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 59%, FC St. Pauli 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Werder Bremen) and 50% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Werder Bremen's games and 56% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Werder Bremen's matches and 50% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 75% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Werder Bremen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 31, as Werder Bremen and FC St. Pauli drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.45 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 42% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 31%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, FC St. Pauli 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.36 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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