Werder Bremen 0-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 45%, yet in-form Werder Bremen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 4W 4D 2L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Werder Bremen. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC Augsburg (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2021, ended 0–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 67% and FC Augsburg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 69% | FC Augsburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.54 xG and FC Augsburg 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.153 / defence 1.439 | FC Augsburg attack 0.797 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.624. Data: 5 Werder Bremen games / 39 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 2.22. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Werder Bremen (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 80% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Werder Bremen 1.54 / FC Augsburg 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.153 / def 1.439 | FC Augsburg attack 0.797 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.624 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.86
FC Augsburg xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 September 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen 0 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 32% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (1.15) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.80x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
32%
3.17
23%
4.26
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.40
1.86
FC Augsburg xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
5%
20.41
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.86 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen come into this having played 39 games, going 20W 11D 8L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.05 PPG from 39 outings (11W 8D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Werder Bremen's home form reads 8W 7D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.08 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 20W 11D 8L in their last 39 games (1.82 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC Augsburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.63 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
5
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 63%, FC Augsburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Werder Bremen) and 47% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 32%; FC Augsburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 42% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 47% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Werder Bremen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 0-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.54 xG and FC Augsburg 1.86 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Werder Bremen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.15 / defence 1.44 against FC Augsburg attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 45%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 69%, FC Augsburg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.