Werder Bremen 2-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 1W 2D 4L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 0.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Augsburg are 0.50 PPG clear of Werder Bremen in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 73% and FC Augsburg 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Werder Bremen 33% | FC Augsburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.89 xG and FC Augsburg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.695 / defence 1.215 | FC Augsburg attack 0.712 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.515. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Werder Bremen games / 15 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 23% | Draw 32% | FC Augsburg 44%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | FC Augsburg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Werder Bremen 71% | FC Augsburg 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 23% | Draw 32% | FC Augsburg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Werder Bremen 0.89 / FC Augsburg 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.695 / def 1.215 | FC Augsburg attack 0.712 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Augsburg xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 January 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen 2 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 23% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.69) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.71x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
23%
4.26
32%
3.11
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.20
1.31
FC Augsburg xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.80
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.31 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 6D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.27 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Werder Bremen's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.13 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 0.71 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
5
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 71%, FC Augsburg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Werder Bremen) and 43% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Werder Bremen's games and 57% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 43% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 0.89 xG and FC Augsburg 1.31 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.69 / defence 1.22 against FC Augsburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 23% | Draw 32% | FC Augsburg 44%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 33%, FC Augsburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.