Werder Bremen 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host 1899 Hoffenheim at Weserstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Werder Bremen have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 4 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Werder Bremen 4–3 1899 Hoffenheim — a Werder Bremen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Werder Bremen trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 58% and 1899 Hoffenheim 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 62% | 1899 Hoffenheim 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.73 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.969 / defence 1.113 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.843 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.351. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 55 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 55.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.13 | Draw 3.83 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.72. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 50% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.73 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.969 / def 1.113 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.843 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
1899 Hoffenheim xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Werder Bremen 1 - 3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 47% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.97) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 55 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.83
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.00
1.27
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.27 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 15D 21L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 17W 13D 25L from 55 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.31 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 27 home games (10W 8D 9L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 6D 13L from their last 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 78%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Werder Bremen (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.41 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 1899 Hoffenheim 4-0 Werder Bremen.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
7
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 3, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Werder Bremen 2-0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 59%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Werder Bremen and 74% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Werder Bremen's games and 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Werder Bremen's matches and 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 85% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Werder Bremen 1-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.73 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.27 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 26% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, 1899 Hoffenheim 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.31 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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