VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 4W 2D 0L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (VfL Wolfsburg) versus 1.50 (VfB Stuttgart). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 75% and VfB Stuttgart 92% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 50% | VfB Stuttgart 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.68 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.202 / defence 1.041 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.252 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.591. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 VfL Wolfsburg games / 12 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 45%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | VfB Stuttgart 2.22. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 67% | VfB Stuttgart 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 74% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.68 / VfB Stuttgart 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.202 / def 1.041 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.252 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.591 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 December 2020 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 29% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 1.20x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.85
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.75
2.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.78
Clean Sheet
13%
7.95
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
4%
27.23
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 2.07 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 6D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (4W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.75 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — VfL Wolfsburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 2.33 points per game from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — VfB Stuttgart travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 92%.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 5W 6D 1L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 2.33 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 67%, VfB Stuttgart at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VfL Wolfsburg and 67% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 83% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.68 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.07 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.25 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 45%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 50%, VfB Stuttgart 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 92% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.75 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.