VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union Berlin at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host Union Berlin at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record at Volkswagen Arena: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of VfL Wolfsburg's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Union Berlin 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Union Berlin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 67% versus Union Berlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 59% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.30 xG and Union Berlin 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.815 / defence 1.300 | Union Berlin attack 0.842 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.445. Data: 46 VfL Wolfsburg games / 46 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 43%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 60% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.30 / Union Berlin 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.815 / def 1.300 | Union Berlin attack 0.842 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Union Berlin xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg 3 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 31% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
Record (8 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 3W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 4W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
31%
3.24
26%
3.89
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.88
1.58
Union Berlin xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
6%
15.75
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.58 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 13D 20L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 14W 14D 18L from 46 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.13 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 0.82 PPG from 22 outings (3W 9D 10L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 7W 4D 11L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.11 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 14W 14D 18L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.82 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, Union Berlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 73%, Union Berlin 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 50% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 36% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 50% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 3-1 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.30 xG and Union Berlin 1.58 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.30 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 43%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 59%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.13 PPG, Union Berlin 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.