VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Dortmund make the trip to Volkswagen Arena to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Volkswagen Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Borussia Dortmund in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Borussia Dortmund, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 67% and Borussia Dortmund 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 62% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.069 / defence 1.169 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.852 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.473. Data: 48 VfL Wolfsburg games / 48 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 26%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Dortmund 3.85. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 70% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 / Borussia Dortmund 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.069 / def 1.169 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.852 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Borussia Dortmund xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 49% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (6 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 1.07x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (0.85x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.00
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.50
1.47
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
13%
7.67
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
3%
29.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.47 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 10D 22L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (24W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 7W 6D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.94 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 24W 13D 11L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.17 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for VfL Wolfsburg, 70% for Borussia Dortmund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for VfL Wolfsburg and 61% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 70% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.47 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.17 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 49% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 26%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.