VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as VfL Wolfsburg welcome Bayer Leverkusen to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Wolfsburg are significantly better at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VfL Wolfsburg, 1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 43% versus Bayer Leverkusen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.73 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.098 / defence 1.202 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.247 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.743 / away 1.307. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 VfL Wolfsburg games / 61 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 33% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 42%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 33% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 73% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.73 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.098 / def 1.202 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.247 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.743 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 33% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (3 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
33%
3.06
26%
3.91
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.69
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
5%
21.74
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.96 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 15D 24L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 32W 11D 18L from 61 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 15W 7D 8L from 30 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 22W 15D 24L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 32W 11D 18L in their last 61 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.40 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.73 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won 6-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for VfL Wolfsburg and 70% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Wolfsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 0-0 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.73 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.10 / defence 1.20 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.25 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 33% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 42%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 52%, Bayer Leverkusen 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.