VfL Bochum 0-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vonovia Ruhrstadion plays host to VfL Bochum versus FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfL Bochum have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfL Bochum's home record at Vonovia Ruhrstadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Augsburg's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for VfL Bochum, 1.30 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfL Bochum lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 43% versus FC Augsburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 43% | FC Augsburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.31 xG and FC Augsburg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.752 / defence 0.851 | FC Augsburg attack 0.819 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.325. VfL Bochum's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 VfL Bochum games / 64 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 44% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | FC Augsburg 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfL Bochum 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 44% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG VfL Bochum 1.31 / FC Augsburg 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.752 / def 0.851 | FC Augsburg attack 0.819 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Augsburg xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Bochum 0 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 44% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Bochum 1W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.75x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.82x) against VfL Bochum's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.25
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.24
0.92
FC Augsburg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 0.92 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, VfL Bochum have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 10W 6D 14L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Augsburg's form line: 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.07 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfL Bochum have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 4D 9L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Augsburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Bochum come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.13 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
VfL Bochum
2
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-2 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 40%, FC Augsburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (VfL Bochum) and 47% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 33%; VfL Bochum have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Augsburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 47% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of VfL Bochum's recent games and 47% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Bochum 0-2 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.31 xG and FC Augsburg 0.92 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfL Bochum fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.75 / defence 0.85 against FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 44% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 25%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 43%, FC Augsburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 1.20 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.