VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at Mercedes-Benz-Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Eintracht Frankfurt — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 63% and Eintracht Frankfurt 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 56% | Eintracht Frankfurt 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.40 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.844 / defence 1.258 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.108 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.358. Data: 54 VfB Stuttgart games / 54 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 26% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.13. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 26% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.40 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.844 / def 1.258 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.108 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 26% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
26%
3.81
27%
3.76
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.29
1.89
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
4%
25.29
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.89 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 16W 15D 23L from 54 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 12L across 54 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 8W 8D 11L from 27 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 8D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.83 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 80%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 19D 12L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.19 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 70%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for VfB Stuttgart and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 78% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out VfB Stuttgart 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.40 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.89 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.84 / defence 1.26 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 26% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 56%, Eintracht Frankfurt 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.