VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Stuttgart Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stuttgart Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 2.60 for Bayer Leverkusen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to VfB Stuttgart's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 66% and Bayer Leverkusen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 68% | Bayer Leverkusen 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.206 / defence 0.836 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.401 / defence 0.669. League average goals — home 1.916 / away 1.405. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.669 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 VfB Stuttgart games / 47 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 35% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 35% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.55 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.206 / def 0.836 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.401 / def 0.669 | league avg home 1.916 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Bayer Leverkusen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 35% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (4 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.21) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.40x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.82
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.19
1.65
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.88
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.65 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 19W 10D 18L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 25W 10D 12L from 47 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.81 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 11W 6D 6L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.02 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 25W 10D 12L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.78 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 65%, Bayer Leverkusen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for VfB Stuttgart and 70% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 30%; Bayer Leverkusen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 48% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 1-1 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.55 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.21 / defence 0.84 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.40 / defence 0.67, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 35% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, Bayer Leverkusen 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.43 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.