Union Berlin 1-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 44%, yet in-form SV Elversberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and SV Elversberg meet at An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at An der Alten Försterei: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Elversberg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Elversberg are 0.90 PPG clear of Union Berlin in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SV Elversberg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 60% versus SV Elversberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 66% | SV Elversberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.99 xG and SV Elversberg 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.950 / defence 1.253 | SV Elversberg attack 0.975 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 2.010 / away 1.423. Data: 38 Union Berlin games / 4 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 34%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | SV Elversberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | SV Elversberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Union Berlin 1.99 / SV Elversberg 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.950 / def 1.253 | SV Elversberg attack 0.975 / def 1.042 | league avg home 2.010 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.74
SV Elversberg xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg part of?
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 44% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Union Berlin and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SV Elversberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and SV Elversberg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.95x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.97x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
44%
2.28
22%
4.46
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.73
1.74
SV Elversberg xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.74 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 10W 10D 18L from 38 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 9L across 38 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 5W 8D 6L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
SV Elversberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.21 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
0
Draws
0
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SV Elversberg?
From 1 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and SV Elversberg?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Union Berlin, 63% for SV Elversberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Union Berlin and 53% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Union Berlin's games and 63% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Union Berlin's matches and 53% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Union Berlin and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out SV Elversberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SV Elversberg 1-0 at An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.99 xG and SV Elversberg 1.74 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.95 / defence 1.25 against SV Elversberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 44% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 34%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 66%, SV Elversberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.