Union Berlin 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg encounter.

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Analysis

SC Freiburg make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

Union Berlin's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Union Berlin at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

SC Freiburg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Freiburg away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

SC Freiburg arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Union Berlin edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended Union Berlin 0–0 SC Freiburg — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus SC Freiburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | SC Freiburg 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.23 xG and SC Freiburg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.866 / defence 1.258 | SC Freiburg attack 0.803 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Union Berlin's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Freiburg's projected output up. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 67 games and SC Freiburg's last 67.

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 40%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.43 | Draw 3.20 | SC Freiburg 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 away games).

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