Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. RB Leipzig's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 3 for RB Leipzig and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with RB Leipzig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 63% and RB Leipzig 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 63% | RB Leipzig 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.05 xG and RB Leipzig 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.066 / defence 1.182 | RB Leipzig attack 1.034 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 Union Berlin games / 35 RB Leipzig games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 30%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | RB Leipzig 3.33. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Union Berlin dominate the H2H record, yet RB Leipzig are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | RB Leipzig 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Union Berlin 2.05 / RB Leipzig 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.066 / def 1.182 | RB Leipzig attack 1.034 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.64
RB Leipzig xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026.
What competition is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig part of?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Record (10 meetings): Union Berlin 5W | Draws 2 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.38
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.69
1.64
RB Leipzig xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
4%
25.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.64 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 10D 15L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.94 PPG from 35 outings (21W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 4W 8D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.97 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; RB Leipzig in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 21W 5D 9L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.18 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 71%, RB Leipzig 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Union Berlin and 65% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Union Berlin's games and 59% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Union Berlin's matches and 65% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Union Berlin and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.