Union Berlin 0-0 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union Berlin welcome RB Leipzig to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, RB Leipzig have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. RB Leipzig's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Union Berlin's games and 60% of RB Leipzig's (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and RB Leipzig's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Union Berlin have won 4, RB Leipzig 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Union Berlin 0–0 RB Leipzig — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
RB Leipzig trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 42% versus RB Leipzig 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 45% | RB Leipzig 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union Berlin surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while RB Leipzig have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.49 xG and RB Leipzig 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.746 / defence 0.948 | RB Leipzig attack 1.124 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.435. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.49. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 53 games and RB Leipzig's last 53.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 37% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.71 | Draw 4.13 | RB Leipzig 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and RB Leipzig's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 70% (last 10 home games) | RB Leipzig 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 37% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Union Berlin 1.49 / RB Leipzig 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.746 / def 0.948 | RB Leipzig attack 1.124 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.53
RB Leipzig xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 RB Leipzig.
Where is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig part of?
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 37% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 53 games and RB Leipzig's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
37%
2.71
24%
4.13
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.01
1.53
RB Leipzig xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.53 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 11D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.83 PPG from 53 outings (28W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 11W 5D 10L across their last 26 home games, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 26 away games (12W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.09 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Leipzig in 62%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs RB Leipzig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 14W 11D 28L in their last 53 games (1.00 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 28W 13D 12L in their last 53 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.46 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig.
Union Berlin's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
2
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 5, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and RB Leipzig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, RB Leipzig 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Union Berlin and 69% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and RB Leipzig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 73% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and RB Leipzig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 69% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Union Berlin and RB Leipzig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 73% of RB Leipzig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and RB Leipzig finished level at 0-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.49 xG and RB Leipzig 1.53 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.75 / defence 0.95 against RB Leipzig attack 1.12 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 37% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 39%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 45%, RB Leipzig 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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