Union Berlin 3-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Union Berlin welcome Hertha BSC to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hertha BSC haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Union Berlin have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Union Berlin have won 2, Hertha BSC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 4–1 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 59% versus Hertha BSC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 53% | Hertha BSC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.69 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.979 / defence 0.911 | Hertha BSC attack 0.842 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.519. Data: 34 Union Berlin games / 34 Hertha BSC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 48% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 4.00. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 60% | Hertha BSC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 48% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Berlin 1.69 / Hertha BSC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.979 / def 0.911 | Hertha BSC attack 0.842 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Union Berlin 3 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC part of?
Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 48% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Berlin and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Union Berlin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.98) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.72
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.85
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.17 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin come into this having played 34 games, going 16W 9D 9L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. Union Berlin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.06 PPG from 34 outings (10W 6D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. Hertha BSC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union Berlin's home form reads 10W 5D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.09 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Pre-Season
Hertha BSC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 9D 9L in their last 34 games (1.68 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Hertha BSC away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.06 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union Berlin have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Union Berlin won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-2 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Hertha BSC?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 53%, Hertha BSC 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Union Berlin) and 59% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 41% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Union Berlin's recent games and 59% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Hertha BSC 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.69 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Hertha BSC attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 48% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 25%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, Hertha BSC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.