Union Berlin 0-3 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2025, ended Union Berlin 0–2 1. FC Heidenheim — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 44% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 47% | 1. FC Heidenheim 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.45 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.934 / defence 0.987 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.821 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.448. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 66 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 66.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.36 | Draw 3.55 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 60% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Union Berlin 1.45 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.934 / def 0.987 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.821 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.17
1. FC Heidenheim xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Union Berlin 0 - 3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.93x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.82x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 66 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.55
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.63
1.17
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.17 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 18W 17D 31L from 66 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 32L across 66 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.03 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 12W 9D 12L from their last 33 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 7W 10D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.26 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
Union Berlin (Home) vs 1. FC Heidenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 17D 31L in their last 66 games (1.08 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 17W 17D 32L in their last 66 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.36 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Heidenheim have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won Union Berlin 0-3 1. FC Heidenheim on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, 1. FC Heidenheim 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union Berlin) and 48% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Union Berlin's recent games and 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 88% of 1. FC Heidenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Heidenheim run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 0-3 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.45 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 42% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 47%, 1. FC Heidenheim 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.08 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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