Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union Berlin at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Union Berlin have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Union Berlin, 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 56% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 49% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.08 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.064 / defence 0.705 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.935 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.815 / away 1.341. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Union Berlin games / 45 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 65% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 15%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 65% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Union Berlin 2.08 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.064 / def 0.705 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.935 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.815 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 65% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.06x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.89
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.96
0.88
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
53.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.88 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 23W 11D 11L from 45 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 16L across 45 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 14W 6D 2L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 4W 9D 9L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.62 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.18 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Union Berlin) and 54% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Union Berlin's recent games and 54% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.08 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.88 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.06 / defence 0.70 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 65% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 15%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 49%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.