Union Berlin 0-0 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Union Berlin (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face 1. FC Köln.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Union Berlin's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Union Berlin are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Union Berlin winning.
The historical record gives Union Berlin a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 57% versus 1. FC Köln 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 55% | 1. FC Köln 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.86 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.946 / defence 0.820 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.744 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.867 / away 1.254. Data: 56 Union Berlin games / 56 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 61% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 13%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Köln 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Union Berlin 70% | 1. FC Köln 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 61% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Union Berlin 1.86 / 1. FC Köln 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.946 / def 0.820 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.744 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.867 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.77
1. FC Köln xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 1. FC Köln.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 61% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 4W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.95) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.74x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
61%
1.63
26%
3.85
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.62
0.77
1. FC Köln xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
2%
50.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.77 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 29W 13D 14L from 56 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 18L across 56 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 17W 8D 2L from 27 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 6W 11D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.50 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 29W 13D 14L in their last 56 games (1.79 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 20W 18D 18L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.19 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
3
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 59%, 1. FC Köln 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 48% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Union Berlin's games and 67% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Union Berlin's recent games and 48% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 23, as Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.86 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.77 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.95 / defence 0.82 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 61% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 13%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 55%, 1. FC Köln 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.