SV Darmstadt 98 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Darmstadt 98 face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in Bundesliga (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
SV Darmstadt 98's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) — SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 49% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 49% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 65%). Note also that Borussia Mönchengladbach surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while SV Darmstadt 98 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.87 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.783 / defence 1.416 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.164 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.990 / away 1.516. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.87. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.416 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 3 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 37.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 28% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 51%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.55 | Draw 4.88 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.95. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 78% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% — both xG figures (1.87 / 2.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 78% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 28% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% (Under 19%) | BTTS Yes 78% (No 22%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.87 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.783 / def 1.416 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.164 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.990 / away 1.516 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
2.50
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
78%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 28% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 51% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (1.16x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.50.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 3 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.4%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
28%
3.55
20%
4.88
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 3
6.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
4.37
2.50
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.63
Clean Sheet
8%
12.17
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
2%
43.16
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2.50 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 20W 7D 10L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 11W 11D 15L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 18 home games (11W 5D 2L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 1W 8D 9L from their last 18 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.54 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 20W 7D 10L in their last 37 games (1.81 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.11 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.61 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 72% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 4, as SV Darmstadt 98 and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.87 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.50 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.78 / defence 1.42 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.16 / defence 1.20, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 28% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 51%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 49%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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