SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.00 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.693 / defence 1.263 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.968 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.320. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 62 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 31% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 31% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.693 / def 1.263 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.968 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 31% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.69) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
31%
3.26
27%
3.68
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.96
1.61
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.61 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 28 games, going 3W 7D 18L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 3W 5D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 7D 18L in their last 28 games (0.57 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.00 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 57% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 36% of games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.61 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.69 / defence 1.26 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 31% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.