SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38%, yet in-form Arminia Bielefeld provide a compelling counter-argument — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 5.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 5.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Arminia Bielefeld are 1.40 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.42 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.904 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.224. Data: 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 35 Arminia Bielefeld games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 32%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arminia Bielefeld (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.42 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.904 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Arminia Bielefeld xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 5.00 | L5 L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.90x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.31
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.69
1.27
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
8%
13.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.27 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arminia Bielefeld carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 5.00 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Arminia Bielefeld in 0%.
Defensively: Arminia Bielefeld in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 0% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 0% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 2, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.42 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.27 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 32%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 100%, Arminia Bielefeld 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Arminia Bielefeld arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded 1 against a 5.00 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.