SC Freiburg 2-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Schwarzwald-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 March 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Schwarzwald-Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Schwarzwald-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for SC Freiburg, 1.00 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 60% versus FC Augsburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | FC Augsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.63 xG and FC Augsburg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.068 / defence 1.203 | FC Augsburg attack 0.692 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.362. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 SC Freiburg games / 25 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 47% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 4.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 47% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG SC Freiburg 1.63 / FC Augsburg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.068 / def 1.203 | FC Augsburg attack 0.692 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
FC Augsburg xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 March 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg 2 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 47% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.69x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.61
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.77
1.13
FC Augsburg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
5%
20.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.13 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 9W 7D 9L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 8W 5D 12L from 25 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.16 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.08 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 67%, FC Augsburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SC Freiburg and 50% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 58% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SC Freiburg's matches and 50% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.63 xG and FC Augsburg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against FC Augsburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.25, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 47% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 25%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, FC Augsburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.36 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.