SC Freiburg 1-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Europa-Park-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 August 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SC Freiburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Europa-Park-Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Augsburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for SC Freiburg, 1.10 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 56% versus FC Augsburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 68% | FC Augsburg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.68 xG and FC Augsburg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.019 / defence 1.064 | FC Augsburg attack 0.899 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.510. Data: 34 SC Freiburg games / 34 FC Augsburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 42% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | FC Augsburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 70% | FC Augsburg 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 42% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Freiburg 1.68 / FC Augsburg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.019 / def 1.064 | FC Augsburg attack 0.899 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg 1 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 42% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
Record (8 meetings): SC Freiburg 6W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.90x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.94
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.12
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.45 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 16W 7D 11L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. SC Freiburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Augsburg's form line: 11W 10D 13L from 34 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. FC Augsburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.26 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.76 PPG from 17 outings (9W 3D 5L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 5D 7L from 17 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.03 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Pre-Season
FC Augsburg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 games (1.62 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 11W 10D 13L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.18 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 71%, FC Augsburg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for SC Freiburg and 53% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Freiburg's games and 41% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of SC Freiburg's matches and 53% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat SC Freiburg 1-3 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.68 xG and FC Augsburg 1.45 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 42% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 32%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 68%, FC Augsburg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.62 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.