SC Freiburg 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Freiburg face Eintracht Frankfurt.

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Match Analysis

SC Freiburg host Eintracht Frankfurt at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

SC Freiburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 1.40 (Eintracht Frankfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended SC Freiburg 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 51% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Freiburg surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Eintracht Frankfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.64 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.969 / defence 1.137 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.963 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.189. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 55 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 55.

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.28 | Draw 3.67 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 60% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 50% (last 10 away games).

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