SC Freiburg 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Eintracht Frankfurt at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 1.40 (Eintracht Frankfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 51% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.64 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.969 / defence 1.137 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.963 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.189. Data: 55 SC Freiburg games / 55 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Freiburg 1.64 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.969 / def 1.137 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.963 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
SC Freiburg 3 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 44% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (5 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.67
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
6%
17.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.30 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 25W 12D 18L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form line: 21W 19D 15L from 55 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.93 PPG from 27 outings (15W 7D 5L).
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 7W 9D 11L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.62 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 64%.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 25W 12D 18L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 19D 15L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.93 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.11 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 56%, Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SC Freiburg) and 67% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Eintracht Frankfurt in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SC Freiburg's games and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of SC Freiburg's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.64 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.30 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 44% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 29%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.