SC Freiburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Freiburg face Borussia Mönchengladbach.

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Match Analysis

SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

SC Freiburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.40 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of SC Freiburg's games and 60% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's (from SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended SC Freiburg 3–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a SC Freiburg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 56% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 64% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.912 / defence 0.966 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.811 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.401. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 45 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 45.

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 37% | Draw 34% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.69 | Draw 2.96 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 80% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% (last 10 away games).

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