SC Freiburg 1-4 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayern München at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Bayern München travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayern München stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayern München have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Freiburg 1.60 PPG, Bayern München 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for Bayern München and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Bayern München winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Bayern München trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 97% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 59% and Bayern München 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 61% | Bayern München 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.54 xG and Bayern München 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.085 / defence 0.953 | Bayern München attack 1.536 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.299. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.536 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 SC Freiburg games / 61 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 31% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 46%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Bayern München 2.17. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 31% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Freiburg 1.54 / Bayern München 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.085 / def 0.953 | Bayern München attack 1.536 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Bayern München xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
SC Freiburg 1 - 4 Bayern München.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 31% chance of winning, Bayern München a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Bayern München (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.08x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
31%
3.22
23%
4.30
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.90
Bayern München xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
5%
21.55
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.90 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 24W 18D 19L from 61 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München, meanwhile, have gone 44W 9D 8L across 61 games — 2.31 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayern München by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 14W 10D 6L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayern München's away record stands at 20W 4D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.95 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 70%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 24W 18D 19L in their last 61 games (1.48 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 44W 9D 8L in their last 61 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.73 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayern München have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bayern München won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
9
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 0, Bayern München have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 97% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 67%, Bayern München at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SC Freiburg and 77% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 77% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SC Freiburg's matches and 77% of Bayern München's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 97% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 1-4 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.54 xG and Bayern München 1.90 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Bayern München attack 1.54 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 31% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 46%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 61%, Bayern München 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.