RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours RB Leipzig (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RB Leipzig face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, RB Leipzig have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RB Leipzig register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
RB Leipzig hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Augsburg, with 4 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with RB Leipzig winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 60% and FC Augsburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RB Leipzig 71% | FC Augsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.24 xG and FC Augsburg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.150 / defence 0.835 | FC Augsburg attack 0.972 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 RB Leipzig games / 35 FC Augsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 63% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 16%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 70% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 63% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG RB Leipzig 2.24 / FC Augsburg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.150 / def 0.835 | FC Augsburg attack 0.972 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FC Augsburg xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 63% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): RB Leipzig 6W | Draws 4 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.76
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.33
1.09
FC Augsburg xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
57.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.09 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 35 games, going 21W 5D 9L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.31 PPG from 35 outings (13W 7D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 12W 2D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (5W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Leipzig have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 21W 5D 9L in their last 35 games (1.94 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.24 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
4
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 65%, FC Augsburg 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for RB Leipzig and 71% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of RB Leipzig's games and 65% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of RB Leipzig's matches and 71% of FC Augsburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.