RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RB Leipzig at 1.50 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RB Leipzig register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
RB Leipzig hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Augsburg, with 4 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 6–0 with RB Leipzig winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 55% versus FC Augsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 60% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.08 xG and FC Augsburg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.118 / defence 1.134 | FC Augsburg attack 0.896 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.356. Data: 58 RB Leipzig games / 58 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 4.00. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 70% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG RB Leipzig 2.08 / FC Augsburg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.118 / def 1.134 | FC Augsburg attack 0.896 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Augsburg xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig 2 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 54% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
Record (9 meetings): RB Leipzig 5W | Draws 4 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
54%
1.87
22%
4.64
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.46
1.38
FC Augsburg xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
3%
32.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.38 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 17D 15L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.28 PPG from 58 outings (20W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RB Leipzig on 1.64 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 14W 8D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.12 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 26W 17D 15L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 1.79 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.07 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
4
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 68%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for RB Leipzig and 61% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of RB Leipzig's games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of RB Leipzig's matches and 61% of FC Augsburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out FC Augsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.08 xG and FC Augsburg 1.38 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 25%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 60%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Leipzig 1.64 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.