RB Leipzig 1-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Red Bull Arena plays host to RB Leipzig versus Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RB Leipzig have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
RB Leipzig at Red Bull Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. RB Leipzig's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for RB Leipzig, 3 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 55% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 61% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.50 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.266 / defence 0.948 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.903 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.458. RB Leipzig carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 RB Leipzig games / 62 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 65% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 17%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.88. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.50 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 65% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 66% | xG RB Leipzig 2.50 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.266 / def 0.948 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.903 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
RB Leipzig 1 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 65% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (8 meetings): RB Leipzig 3W | Draws 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W.
What form are RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates RB Leipzig's attack at 1.27x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.90x) against RB Leipzig's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
65%
1.55
18%
5.45
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.75
1.25
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
8%
12.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
1%
71.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.25 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 17D 16L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 20W 15D 27L from 62 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 1.90 PPG from 31 outings (17W 8D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 7D 15L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.45 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 29W 17D 16L in their last 62 games (1.68 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
RB Leipzig's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 1.90 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.10 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Leipzig have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 64%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for RB Leipzig and 61% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of RB Leipzig's games and 61% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of RB Leipzig's matches and 61% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.50 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Leipzig fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.27 / defence 0.95 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 65% | Draw 18% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 17%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 61%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.