RB Leipzig 1-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Red Bull Arena plays host to RB Leipzig versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 9 January 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 0L across 7 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 4W 1D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. RB Leipzig's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Borussia Dortmund's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
RB Leipzig — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 43% versus Borussia Dortmund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 43% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 1.49 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.106 / defence 0.776 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.956 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.508. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 RB Leipzig games / 14 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 43% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 25%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Borussia Dortmund 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: RB Leipzig 43% | Borussia Dortmund 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 43% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG RB Leipzig 1.49 / Borussia Dortmund 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.106 / def 0.776 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.956 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Borussia Dortmund xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 January 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?
RB Leipzig 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 43% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RB Leipzig's attack at 1.11x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (0.96x) against RB Leipzig's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.11
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
2.61
1.12
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
6%
17.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.12 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Leipzig come into this having played 14 games, going 9W 4D 1L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (8W 1D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
RB Leipzig's home form reads 6W 1D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.21 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded. Borussia Dortmund's attacking output running into RB Leipzig's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Borussia Dortmund in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 9W 4D 1L in their last 14 games (2.21 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 1D 5L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.71 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.86 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 1-4 on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Leipzig have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
2
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 43%, Borussia Dortmund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (RB Leipzig) and 43% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of RB Leipzig's matches and 43% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RB Leipzig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat RB Leipzig 1-3 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 1.49 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.12 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 43% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 25%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 43%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.79. Form was overturned, with Borussia Dortmund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.