Hertha BSC 0-5 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 38%, yet in-form VfL Wolfsburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 January 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfL Wolfsburg are 1.20 PPG clear of Hertha BSC in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Hertha BSC 0W, VfL Wolfsburg 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 60% versus VfL Wolfsburg 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 56% | VfL Wolfsburg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.45 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.893 / defence 1.040 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.024 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 2.041 / away 1.347. VfL Wolfsburg's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Hertha BSC games / 50 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 38% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 37%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfL Wolfsburg (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Jan 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 38% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Hertha BSC 1.45 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.893 / def 1.040 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.024 / def 0.795 | league avg home 2.041 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 January 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Hertha BSC 0 - 5 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 38% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.89) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.02x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.91
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.44 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 11D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.36 PPG from 50 outings (19W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.36 for VfL Wolfsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.46 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.24 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 0-5 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 72%, VfL Wolfsburg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hertha BSC) and 48% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Hertha BSC's games and 40% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 48% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfL Wolfsburg run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Hertha BSC 0-5 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.45 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.44 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 38% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 37%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 56%, VfL Wolfsburg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.