Hertha BSC 3-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Union Berlin travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 December 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 outings — a 0.89 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 0.89 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympiastadion Berlin this season.
Union Berlin — All Games: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.78 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 2D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 1.78 PPG return is 0.89 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 0.89 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Union Berlin trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 67% and Union Berlin 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 67% | Union Berlin 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.12 xG and Union Berlin 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.844 / defence 1.505 | Union Berlin attack 0.917 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.619. Data: 9 Hertha BSC games / 9 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 15% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 60%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 6.67 | Draw 4.00 | Union Berlin 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 75% | Union Berlin 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 4 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 15% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Hertha BSC 1.12 / Union Berlin 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.844 / def 1.505 | Union Berlin attack 0.917 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.619 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Union Berlin xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 December 2020 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Hertha BSC 3 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin part of?
Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 15% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 60% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hertha BSC and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.84x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
15%
6.55
25%
4.05
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.35
2.23
Union Berlin xG
6.55
15%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
11%
9.34
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
2%
61.15
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 2.23 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 1L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.89 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 2.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 0.25 PPG; Union Berlin away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Union Berlin have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Union Berlin won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Union Berlin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Hertha BSC 0-2 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 75%, Union Berlin at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hertha BSC) and 50% (Union Berlin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hertha BSC's games and 100% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 50% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Union Berlin 3-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.12 xG and Union Berlin 2.23 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.84 / defence 1.50 against Union Berlin attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 15% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 60%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 67%, Union Berlin 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.