Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Hamburger SV welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Volksparkstadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hamburger SV's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Hamburger SV trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 63% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 67% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.38 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.926 / defence 1.017 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.032 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.361. Data: 23 Hamburger SV games / 57 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 36% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 36% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hamburger SV 1.38 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.926 / def 1.017 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.032 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Bayer Leverkusen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Hamburger SV 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 36% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.79
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.43 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 22W 19D 16L from 57 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 10L across 57 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hamburger SV heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 13W 10D 5L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 14W 10D 4L across 28 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.04 scored and 1.26 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 22W 19D 16L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 16D 10L in their last 57 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.75 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 68%, Bayer Leverkusen at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hamburger SV and 61% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hamburger SV's games and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hamburger SV's matches and 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Hamburger SV and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Hamburger SV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Hamburger SV 0-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.38 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.43 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 36% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.