FSV Mainz 05 0-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 44%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 7W 2D 1L at MEWA ARENA — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEWA ARENA. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FSV Mainz 05 are significantly better at MEWA ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Union Berlin are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 0W, Union Berlin 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 57% versus Union Berlin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 60% | Union Berlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.72 xG and Union Berlin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.064 / defence 0.843 | Union Berlin attack 1.024 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.609. Data: 35 FSV Mainz 05 games / 35 Union Berlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 44% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 30%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FSV Mainz 05 30% | Union Berlin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 44% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.72 / Union Berlin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.064 / def 0.843 | Union Berlin attack 1.024 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.609 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Union Berlin xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 44% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Record (2 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (1.02x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.81
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.11
1.39
Union Berlin xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.39 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 7D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.71 PPG from 35 outings (17W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.71 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 10W 5D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — FSV Mainz 05 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.51 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 14W 7D 14L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Union Berlin away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 2.06 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 41%, Union Berlin 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FSV Mainz 05) and 65% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Union Berlin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 65% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 65% of Union Berlin's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FSV Mainz 05's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin finished level at 0-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.72 xG and Union Berlin 1.39 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Union Berlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Union Berlin attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 44% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 30%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 60%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.40 PPG, Union Berlin 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.