FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05 at MEWA ARENA this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 55% versus SC Freiburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 47% | SC Freiburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.46 xG and SC Freiburg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.934 / defence 0.799 | SC Freiburg attack 1.025 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.334. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 FSV Mainz 05 games / 38 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 42% | Draw 34% | SC Freiburg 24%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | SC Freiburg 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 50% | SC Freiburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 42% | Draw 34% | SC Freiburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.46 / SC Freiburg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.934 / def 0.799 | SC Freiburg attack 1.025 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SC Freiburg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 42% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.93) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (1.02x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.98
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.56
1.09
SC Freiburg xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.09 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 13W 9D 16L from 38 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 13L across 38 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.39 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 14W 11D 13L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SC Freiburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.16 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
4
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 47%, SC Freiburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (FSV Mainz 05) and 63% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 32% of games; SC Freiburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 53% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 63% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FSV Mainz 05's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.46 xG and SC Freiburg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against SC Freiburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 42% | Draw 34% | SC Freiburg 24%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 47%, SC Freiburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.26 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.