FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to MEWA ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at MEWA ARENA this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FSV Mainz 05 1.60 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 57% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.85 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.019 / defence 0.866 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.881 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.265. Data: 44 FSV Mainz 05 games / 44 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 17%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.85 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.019 / def 0.866 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.881 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 November 2021 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 56% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 1.02x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
56%
1.80
28%
3.58
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.82
0.96
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
38.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.96 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 15W 10D 19L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 17W 12D 15L from 44 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.25 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 6W 6D 10L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.73 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 12D 15L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.18 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 50%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FSV Mainz 05) and 77% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 32% of games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 77% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 11, as FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.85 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.96 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.02 / defence 0.87 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 56% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 17%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.25 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.