FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FSV Mainz 05 face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to MEWA ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FSV Mainz 05 0.70 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 61% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.27 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.657 / defence 0.951 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.998 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.257. FSV Mainz 05's attack rating of 0.657 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 57 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 57.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 36% | Draw 31% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.75 | Draw 3.21 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 40% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 36% | Draw 31% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.27 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.657 / def 0.951 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.998 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 36% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.66x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 57 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
36%
2.75
31%
3.21
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.47
1.19
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.19 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 14W 19D 24L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 17W 17D 23L from 57 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.07 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 9D 11L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 11D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.63 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 14W 19D 24L in their last 57 games (1.07 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.18 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won FSV Mainz 05 4-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FSV Mainz 05
5
Draws
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FSV Mainz 05 at 57%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FSV Mainz 05 and 75% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 82% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 24, as FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.27 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.66 / defence 0.95 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 36% | Draw 31% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.07 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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