FC St. Pauli 2-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 September 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 33% versus FC Augsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 31% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.52 xG and FC Augsburg 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.970 / defence 1.054 | FC Augsburg attack 1.060 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.542. Data: 36 FC St. Pauli games / 36 FC Augsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 43%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 63% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. This conflicts with form data: FC St. Pauli 40% | FC Augsburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.52 / FC Augsburg 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.970 / def 1.054 | FC Augsburg attack 1.060 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.542 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FC Augsburg xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 34% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 0.97x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.06x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
34%
2.92
23%
4.33
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.25
1.72
FC Augsburg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.37
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.72 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 9D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.28 PPG from 36 outings (12W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.28 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 3W 6D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.11 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 9W 9D 18L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 0.83 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.28 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 28%, FC Augsburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (FC St. Pauli) and 56% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 61% of games; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 44% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 56% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.52 xG and FC Augsburg 1.72 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against FC Augsburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 43%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 31%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.