FC St. Pauli 1-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC St. Pauli face 1899 Hoffenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host 1899 Hoffenheim at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FC St. Pauli's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1899 Hoffenheim's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 0.80 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for FC St. Pauli, 0 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended FC St. Pauli 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim — a FC St. Pauli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 48% and 1899 Hoffenheim 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 44% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.87 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.577 / defence 0.987 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.935 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.399. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.577 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 25 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 59.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 24% | Draw 32% | 1899 Hoffenheim 45%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 4.22 | Draw 3.17 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.23. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 20% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 24% | Draw 32% | 1899 Hoffenheim 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG FC St. Pauli 0.87 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.577 / def 0.987 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.935 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.29
1899 Hoffenheim xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 14 March 2025 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 24% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.58) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 25 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
24%
4.22
32%
3.17
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.17
1.29
1899 Hoffenheim xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.8 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.29 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 26W 13D 20L from 59 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 25L across 59 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.54 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 13W 8D 8L from their last 29 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 10W 6D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.66 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 78%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 26W 13D 20L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 15D 25L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.62 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2025, when 1899 Hoffenheim won FC St. Pauli 0-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
1
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 3, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 41%, 1899 Hoffenheim 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC St. Pauli) and 72% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of FC St. Pauli's games and 72% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 72% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 83% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.87 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.58 / defence 0.99 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 24% | Draw 32% | 1899 Hoffenheim 45%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 44%, 1899 Hoffenheim 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.54 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 26
All Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →