1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Heidenheim face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Borussia Dortmund to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1W 2D 7L at Voith-Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Voith-Arena this season.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 44% versus Borussia Dortmund 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Heidenheim 58% | Borussia Dortmund 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.53 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.800 / defence 1.215 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.228 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.495. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 1. FC Heidenheim games / 36 Borussia Dortmund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 53%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Borussia Dortmund 1.89. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.53 / Borussia Dortmund 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.800 / def 1.215 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.228 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Borussia Dortmund xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 26% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 53% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 2W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.80) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
26%
3.89
21%
4.72
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.76
2.23
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.89
26%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
11%
9.30
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
3%
36.19
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.23 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 6D 23L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.69 PPG from 36 outings (18W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 2W 3D 13L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.14 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 7W 6D 23L in their last 36 games (0.75 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.50 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 39%, Borussia Dortmund 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 67% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 72% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.53 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.23 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 26% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 53%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 58%, Borussia Dortmund 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.