FC Augsburg 2-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Werder Bremen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Werder Bremen haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Augsburg, 1.20 for Werder Bremen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: FC Augsburg 3W, Werder Bremen 3W, 0D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Werder Bremen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 68% and Werder Bremen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 62% | Werder Bremen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.51 xG and Werder Bremen 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.892 / defence 0.976 | Werder Bremen attack 0.949 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.476. Data: 34 FC Augsburg games / 34 Werder Bremen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Werder Bremen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 50% | Werder Bremen 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.51 / Werder Bremen 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.892 / def 0.976 | Werder Bremen attack 0.949 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Werder Bremen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg 2 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 39% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
Record (6 meetings): FC Augsburg 3W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.89) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.95x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.45
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.87
1.37
Werder Bremen xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.37 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. FC Augsburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 14L across 34 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. Werder Bremen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.24 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 6W 6D 5L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.41 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Pre-Season
Werder Bremen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.41 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 71%, Werder Bremen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC Augsburg) and 47% (Werder Bremen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Augsburg's games and 53% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 47% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 1, as FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.51 xG and Werder Bremen 1.37 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Werder Bremen attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 32%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 62%, Werder Bremen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.15 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.