FC Augsburg 2-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 games at WWK Arena this term (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Union Berlin are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 47% versus Union Berlin 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 41% | Union Berlin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 0.94 xG and Union Berlin 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.679 / defence 1.324 | Union Berlin attack 0.846 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.444. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 FC Augsburg games / 17 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 20% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 52%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Union Berlin 1.92. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 44% | Union Berlin 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 20% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Augsburg 0.94 / Union Berlin 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.679 / def 1.324 | Union Berlin attack 0.846 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Union Berlin xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 January 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 20% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Augsburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.68) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.85x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
20%
4.90
28%
3.60
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.56
1.62
Union Berlin xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
4%
24.72
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.62 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 3L across 17 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.12 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.88 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 7W 7D 3L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 0.62 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Union Berlin have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, Union Berlin 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 50% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Augsburg's games and 75% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 50% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Union Berlin 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.94 xG and Union Berlin 1.62 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.32 against Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 20% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 52%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 41%, Union Berlin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.