FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host SC Paderborn 07 at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC Augsburg) versus 1.30 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 65% and SC Paderborn 07 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 68% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.17 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.041 / defence 0.984 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.731 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. Data: 40 FC Augsburg games / 6 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 64% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | SC Paderborn 07 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 64% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Augsburg 2.17 / SC Paderborn 07 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.041 / def 0.984 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.731 / def 1.030 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SC Paderborn 07 xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 64% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Augsburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.04x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.08
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.17
1.01
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
2%
53.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.01 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 9D 17L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.68 PPG from 40 outings (19W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 7D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.58 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 10D 11L in their last 40 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.55 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.55 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 60%, SC Paderborn 07 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC Augsburg) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 45%; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 45% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Augsburg's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC Augsburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.