FC Augsburg 1-3 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Holstein Kiel at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Augsburg have posted 3W 4D 3L at WWK Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WWK Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Augsburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Augsburg have won 0, Holstein Kiel 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 1–5 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 57% and Holstein Kiel 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 55% | Holstein Kiel 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.28 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.667 / defence 0.749 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.905 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.428. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 FC Augsburg games / 31 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Holstein Kiel 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 20% | Holstein Kiel 90%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Augsburg 1.28 / Holstein Kiel 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.667 / def 0.749 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.905 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Holstein Kiel xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel?
FC Augsburg 1 - 3 Holstein Kiel.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 43% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.67x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.31
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.25
0.97
Holstein Kiel xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.97 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 19D 25L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 26W 12D 27L from 65 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.26 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (12W 11D 9L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 13W 8D 11L from 32 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.69 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 63%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 26W 12D 27L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Holstein Kiel away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.47 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when FC Augsburg 1-3 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 59%, Holstein Kiel 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Augsburg) and 62% (Holstein Kiel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 34%; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Augsburg's games and 66% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Augsburg's matches and 62% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do FC Augsburg and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat FC Augsburg 1-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.28 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.97 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Holstein Kiel outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.67 / defence 0.75 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 27%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, Holstein Kiel 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.26 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.