FC Augsburg 0-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Augsburg face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.30 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Augsburg, 4 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 55% versus Borussia Dortmund 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.26 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.940 / defence 1.532 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.149 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.542. Data: 42 FC Augsburg games / 42 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 15% | Draw 16% | Borussia Dortmund 68%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 6.67 | Draw 6.25 | Borussia Dortmund 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 15% | Draw 16% | Borussia Dortmund 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Augsburg 1.26 / Borussia Dortmund 2.72 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.940 / def 1.532 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.149 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.542 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.72
Borussia Dortmund xG
67%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 31 October 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Augsburg 0 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 15% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 68% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (8 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.94) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 2.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
15%
6.46
16%
6.10
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.98
2.72
Borussia Dortmund xG
6.46
15%
Home win
6.10
16%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
7%
15.12
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
1%
97.74
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.72 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 11D 18L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.76 PPG from 42 outings (22W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 22W 8D 12L in their last 42 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.24 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 57%, Borussia Dortmund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Augsburg and 62% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Augsburg's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Augsburg's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out FC Augsburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.26 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.72 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.53 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 15% | Draw 16% | Borussia Dortmund 68%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.