FC Augsburg 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Arminia Bielefeld away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Augsburg, 0.90 for Arminia Bielefeld — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Augsburg 1W, Arminia Bielefeld 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2020, ended 1–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus Arminia Bielefeld 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 46% | Arminia Bielefeld 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.913 / defence 1.213 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.734 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.350. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC Augsburg games / 28 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Arminia Bielefeld 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Augsburg 1.45 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.734 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
FC Augsburg 0 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 41% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.91x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.73x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.47
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.20 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 9W 5D 14L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 7W 5D 16L from 28 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.93 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 4D 7L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.79 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 9W 5D 14L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.15 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, Arminia Bielefeld 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 54% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 38% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 54% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 54% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 29, as FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.21 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 29% | Arminia Bielefeld 30%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 46%, Arminia Bielefeld 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.